Actually, I’ve come here with my family as we had an opportunity to choose among 5 countries in Eastern Europe to live and work. So, we first visited Kiev and then made a short trip to Belgrade which was more than enough – we fell in love with it at first sight. We were delighted with people and the hospitality, quality of life, cuisine, the charm of the Danube and the strong relationship people here have with the French. It is now 4 months that we live here and we truly enjoy it.

I worked for CB Richard Ellis Paris for 4 years as certified real estate valuer and Valuation Team Manager, in charge of key account clients AXA (Leading Insurance Company), Deutsche Bank, Gecina and UFG (investment companies). Before joining CBRE I worked as an asset manager for 2 years. Most of my valuation work in CBRE was focused on office market, but I also worked a lot on valuations of hotels, warehouses, retail parks both in Paris and elsewhere.As per my present role in CBRE Serbia, I work as a senior consultant in Valuation & Development Advisory Department, engaged in valuation advisory, development consultancy, feasibility studies, highest and best use analysis, as our team here in Serbia covers all segments of the property market both in Serbia and Montenegro.

Serbian property market is very mixed. There is an undersupply for everything concerning the retail and oversupply of office space. As concerns the housing market, prices are rather high as compared to European standards. With the crisis, as in all countries, investment almost stopped, which I hope will change starting from Spring 2010.

It is difficult to compare these two markets, as French market is fully developed, stable in all segments of the property market, except for the chronic undersupply of residential properties. France is very attractive to foreign investors, as fruitful market for long-term safe investments. However, France as other countries has been considerably affected by the crisis. The good thing is that supply on the French market is far more diversified than in London, for instance, where the banking sector occupies the main part of office market. However, investments declined significantly. Thus, in 2008, only EUR 12.5 b changed hands on French commercial property investment market (offices, warehouses, light industrial and retail premises). The fall appeared particularly significant when compared to the record levels in 2006 and 2007: over one year, it reached 55%. Although it was a severe shock, France stood up better than its two main European competitors, Great Britain (-64%) and Germany (-68%).

Likewise, Serbian property market faced almost complete absence of demand at the beginning of the year, which led to a decrease in prices generally and lowering of the rents to certain extent. Yet, it should show signs of upturn in early 2010, as banks are thinking of resuming project financing, which should give a new boost to office, retail and residential projects. Actually, some of the biggest investors who postponed their announced projects are now actively thinking of resuming them, and commencing the construction.

As concerns the impact of the crisis on the markets of Eastern Europe, it seems that Serbia suffers less than its neighbours, for different reasons. First, Serbia had had elections several months before the crisis began, and this means that the government had had enough time to implement unpopular policy measures for fighting against the crisis that followed. On the other hand, in some other countries in the region, due to the pending elections, governments were much more hesitant to implement necessary adjustments. Secondly, the government managed to strike a new balance, and as compared to the Baltic countries and Ukraine, where there is a collapse, Serbia is doing relatively well.

In my opinion, Serbian market has important axis of development in retail (shopping centers) and hotel market. Namely, the retail ratio (number of sq m per 1.000 inhabitants) is one of the lowest in the region, and although in recent years the market has been enriched with new shopping centers, there is still great development potential.As per hotel market, the offer is not suitable for European standards and it is rather aging. Furthermore, I strongly believe in tourism potential in Serbia, which unfortunately is still not developed as Serbia lacks proper infrastructure to accommodate tourists and make them want to come again. All in all, I am confident in future development of Serbian market, as it have solid investment potential.

Došao sam ovde sa mojom porodicom i tada sam mogao da biram između 5 zemalja u istočnoj Evropi gde ću živeti i raditi. Prvo smo posetili Kijev i napravili kratku posetu Beogradu, što je za nas bilo više nego dovoljno – zaljubili smo se u ovaj grad na prvi pogled. Oduševljeni smo gostoprimljivošću ljudi ovde, odličnom hranom, kvalitetom života, šarmom Dunava, kao i snažnom vezom koju ljudi ovde imaju sa Francuskom. Evo ovde živim već 4 meseca i zaista uživamo.

Radio sam 4 godine u Parizu za CB Richard Ellis kao menadžer tima za procene, gde sam rukovodio glavnim klijentima kao što su AXA, Deutsche Bank, Gecina i UFG. Većina mog rada je bila posvećena kancelarijskom prostoru, međutim imam dosta iskustva i sa hotelima, skladištima I maloprodajnim parkovima kako u Parizu tako i širom zemlje. Što se tiče mog posla ovde, radiću kao stariji consultant na proceni i savetovanju, izradama studija izvodljivosti, analizom, a naš tim ovde u Srbiji pokriva sve segmente tržista i u Srbiji i u Crnoj Gori.

Srpsko tržište je veoma izmešano. Postoji veliki nedostatak kada se govori o maloprodaji i izvesno zasićenje u segmentu kancelarijskog prostora. Što se tiče stambenog prostora, cene su poprilično visoke u odnosu na evropske standarde. Kriza je u Srbiji kao i u ostaku sveta izazvala investicionu stagnaciju, ali ja očekujem da će se to promeniti već početkom 2010.

Teško je porediti ova dva tržišta, jer je francusko potpuno razvijeno u svim segmentima, osim hroničnog nedostatka stambenog prostora. Francuska je vrlo atraktivna za dugoročne i sigurne investicije. Međutim, Francuska je teško pogođena ovom krizom iako je mnogo bolje diversifikovana od Londona recimo, gde većinu kancelarijskog prostora popunjava bankarski sektor. U ovoj godini je samo oko 12.5 milijardi evra promenilo ruke na francuskom tržištu nekretnina što je pad od 55% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu. Ovo je dramatičan šok za sektor, ali i pored toga Francuska se drži bolje od svoja dva najveća konkurenta Velike Britanije(-64%) I Nemačke (-68%).
Isto tako i na srpskom tržištu došlo je do potpunog odsustva tražnje u prvoj polovini godine, što je dovelo do pada cena iznajmljivanja. Ipak očekuje se da se oporavi početkom 2010, jer banke već planiraju nastavak finansiranja projekata što će biti novi podsticaj i za kancelarijsku, maloprodajnu i stambenu gradnju. Zaparvo, neki od najvećih investitora aktivno razmisljaju da otpocnu izgradnju u narednom periodu.

Što se tiče udara krize, izgleda da Srbija imam značajno manje posledice u odnosu na njene susede zbog više razloga. Prvo, Srbija je imala izbore nekoliko meseci pre nego što je kriza počela, pa je Vlada imala vremena da implementira nepopularne mere za borbu protiv krize koja je nastupila. U ostalim zemljama izbori tek dolaze pa su njihove vlade oklevale da donesu potrebne mere. Čini se da se ovde postigao novi balans, pa za razliku od Baltičkih zemalja i Ukrajne gde je kolaps sistema, Srbija se dobro drži.

Mislim da je to možda sektor hotelskog smeštaja, čiji kapaciteti su daleko od evropskih standarda i dosta su zastareli. Duboko verujem u turistički potencijal Srbije, koji je nažalost nerazvijen jer nedostaje neophodna infrastruktura da se smeste turisti i da ih animirate da dođu opet. Potpuno sam uveren u razvoj srpskog tržišta, jer ima ogromne investicione potencijale.